Land Use Scenario Simulation and Ecosystem Service Management for Different Regional Development Models of the Beibu Gulf Area, China

Land use change is an important way for human activities to affect ecosystems. Based on the land demands and policies, simulation of future changes under different scenarios can test rationality socio-economic policy-oriented changes. In this study, we set three regular growth, ecological protection, ecotourism development in 2030 Beibu Gulf area, China. We simulated spatial distribution evolution characteristics landscape pattern using Scenario Generator Rule Module InVEST. Meanwhile, ecosystem service value (ESV) was estimated by improved unit area equivalent method reveal trend ESVs regional models. The results indicated that during 1999–2014 showed significant heterogeneity. farmland mainly distributed Beihai, forestland located Fangchenggang, while orchard concentrated Qinzhou. Due economic construction urban expansion, aquaculture were gradually growing, mud flat continued decrease. Between 2014 2030, total ESV decreased growth scenario increased protection scenario. addition, comparing scenarios, a more reasonable model Guangxi which realized trade-off between tourism resource conservation. Therefore, planners should not only consider maximizing when planning services, but also strive maintain structure services. Some suggestions provided paper at macro level local respectively, offered some references rational allocation resources, environmental coastal Gulf.